The future of Europe
The Eurozone and the next recession.
When is the next recession? How would Europe cope?
These questions are both weighing on investors’ minds as fears of a recession grow.
A recession, particularly a severe one, would likely lead to significant structural changes. These may include fundamental shifts in the international corporate tax architecture and the unleashing of the next generation of monetary policy. Investors bracing for Draghi’s “whatever it takes” need to be prepared, because neither he nor other key European policy makers will be in the lead anymore to steer the Eurozone through crisis, even if integration accelerates.
To help investors, we look not only at the business cycle and available policy space, but also stress test the Eurozone with illustrative recession scenarios. This should lay a good foundation for investors to discover where the weak links and investment opportunities are.