Construction: in 2020 signs of recovery
The period 2020-2024 for the construction world will be characterized by a positive trend: the XXVII Cresme Economic and Social Research Center (Construction and Market Research Center) says it is like every year it photographs the sector scenario of buildings.
In particular, if there are no serious crises outside the sector, the next three years, according to analysts, will record a recovery market on all fronts, from redevelopment to new residential construction, from new non-residential construction to public works.
Maintenance and new construction
Thus the activity of ordinary and extraordinary maintenance of the existing assets, which represents over 70% of the overall market, will record annual growth rates of just over 1.5%. Low recovery rates compared to pre-crisis levels, but still constant thanks to tax incentives, which in the 2013-2019 period fed over € 28 billion of work per year. Support policies and incentives that however represent the same risk for this segment being timed and renewed from year to year.
As regards investments in new buildings, Cresme indicates growth for the entire 2020-2024 period with increases of + 3.7%, + 2.6%, + 1.7%, + 0.1% and 0% respectively . Investments in renewal activities also increased: + 1.8% in 2020; + 1.7% in 2021; + 1.7% in 2022; + 1.4% in 2023; + 1.4% in 2024.
New residential and non-residential buildings have started to grow again, but production levels are very low, but the relationship between demand and construction has changed compared to the past. In fact, the demographic dynamics of a country in decline of population and internal migration flows concentrated in the areas of greatest attraction capacity and capable of overcoming the competitive challenge between city and city, between territories and territories, between cities and territories have changed .
“In the coming years the housing question will become a question of the relationship between places of concentration of demand, for which new building production will be needed, and places of abandonment. For both fronts the node will still be represented by the maintenance and the redevelopment of the existing building stock: to relaunch the competition, to avoid degradation. The road to the future of Italian construction is increasingly that of quality and not quantity, “said Cresme director Lorenzo Bellicini.
From the point of view of public works, the data prepared by Cresme describe the growth of the sector for the three-year period 2018-2020 with better dynamics than expected in the report drawn up last year. A growth that will continue also in the coming years with investments that in 2020 will mark a + 4.5% more than the previous year, a + 3.5% in 2021, a + 2.5% in 2022, a +1 , 5% in 2023 and a + 1.5% in 2024.
The growth in investments is mainly attributable to the acceleration of infrastructure investment spending on the rail network, private operators of the motorway network and national and local managers of the energy and water networks, while the growth of investments in 2019 is due to the resumption of expenditure for investments by local authorities and the consolidation of the growth of public or public utility infrastructure managers.
«The picture described is of a construction market in slow recovery and exit from the biggest crisis in its history. But if this is true, one cannot but consider that the market has been reduced, it is profoundly transformed and appears to be in a crisis of image. Speculation, land use, corruption, illegal construction, rent, errors, delays, variations are all words that have drawn a negative scenario over the decades that runs the risk of not understanding the strategic challenge that the built environment is today called to play in historical environmental and socio-economic phase we are experiencing. In short, we need a new construction sector “, concludes Bellicini.